Follow the favourites, implied probabilities and price changes ahead of the October ceremony.
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Football odds guide: 1X2, draws, totals and value
This guide explains 1X2 odds, draws, totals, handicaps, bookmaker margin, and how to compare a football price with fair probability.
The basics
How football odds work
A football 1X2 market prices three outcomes: home win, draw, and away win. Decimal odds of 1.50 return 1.50 times the stake, including the stake; 6.00 returns six times it. Add the three implied probabilities and the total usually exceeds 100%; the excess is the bookmaker's overround. Other common markets include both teams to score, goal totals, and Asian or European handicaps, each with its own settlement rules.
What to look for
How to evaluate the draw price
The draw deserves separate pricing because a three-way 1X2 market spreads probability across home, draw, and away results. Start with team strength, expected scoring, home advantage, injuries, and tactics, then compare your draw probability with the offered odds after removing margin. Low totals and evenly matched teams can raise draw probability, but no result is automatically underbet. Rotation and schedule pressure can also change the inputs, so check confirmed team news before relying on an early price.
These are reads, not tips. Odds move, so confirm the live price with the bookmaker before you bet. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
Editorial guide reviewed . Market cards update separately as new Oddly Likely analyses are published.
Ballon d'Or 2026
2026 Ballon d'Or odds and contender movement
Football
Past markets
Real Madrid v Inter Milan
Three first-choice Madrid midfielders are banned for the Champions League opener. Mourinho confirms one fit midfielder remains. Inter at 5.0 looks mispriced.
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan odds & analysisReal Betis v Real Madrid
Isco scored the last decisive goal in Seville. Betis are unbeaten in four home meetings with Madrid. At 7.5, the market is sleeping on the head-to-head.
Real Betis vs Real Madrid odds & analysisVfL Osnabrück v Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich came from behind to beat VfL Osnabrück 4-1 in the DFB-Pokal first round. Harry Kane scored twice including a late penalty.
VfL Osnabrück vs Bayern Munich result & closing oddsAston Villa v Arsenal
Bukayo Saka scored the only goal in the 59th minute as Arsenal won away at Villa Park.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal result & closing oddsManchester United v Ipswich Town
Manchester United beat Ipswich Town 5-2 at Old Trafford, with Bruno Fernandes scoring a hat-trick.
Manchester United vs Ipswich Town result & closing oddsTottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United
Newcastle United won 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with second-half goals from Anthony Elanga in the 62nd minute and Yoane Wissa in the 72nd.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United result & closing oddsCrystal Palace v Manchester City
Manchester City won 4-1 at Crystal Palace in the Premier League on 28 August 2026, with two goals from Erling Haaland, a strike from Rayan Cherki and an own goal.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City result & closing oddsBarcelona v Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona beat Athletic Club 2-0 in LaLiga on 27 August 2026, with Raphinha opening the scoring in the 37th minute and Fermin Lopez sealing the win in the 82nd.
Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao result & closing oddsNewcastle United v Liverpool
Newcastle United and Liverpool drew 2-2 at St James' Park. Joe Willock put Newcastle ahead for a second time from the bench, but Dominik Szoboszlai equalised from the penalty spot in the ninth minute of added time.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool result & closing oddsHull City v Manchester United
Hull City beat Manchester United 2-0 with first-half goals from Semi Ajayi in the 17th minute and Nobel Mendy in the 38th. It was Hull's first Premier League victory over United.
Hull City vs Manchester United result & closing oddsAl-Riyadh v Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr won 4-0 away at Al-Riyadh on 21 August 2026 in the Saudi Pro League, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Joao Felix among the scorers as Al-Nassr made it two wins from two.
Al-Riyadh vs Al-Nassr result & closing oddsPhiladelphia Union v Inter Miami CF
The Philadelphia Union and Inter Miami played to a 2-2 draw at Subaru Park. Lionel Messi had a goal and an assist in a match that ended with two players sent off.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF result & closing oddsFenerbahce v Lyon
Fenerbahce and Lyon drew 1-1 in the first leg of their Champions League play-off in Istanbul. Lois Openda put Lyon ahead in the 40th minute and Mason Greenwood equalised in the 47th.
Fenerbahce vs Lyon result & closing oddsVasco da Gama v Santos
Santos won 3-0 away at Vasco da Gama on 16 August 2026 with goals from Gabriel Barbosa in the 68th minute, Willian Arao in the 77th and Luan Peres in the 81st.
Vasco da Gama vs Santos result & closing oddsArsenal v Manchester City
Arsenal beat Manchester City 3-0 in the 2026 FA Community Shield at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff, with Riccardo Calafiori scoring inside the first minute before Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard added further goals.
Arsenal vs Manchester City result & closing oddsNashville SC v Inter Miami CF
Nashville SC beat Inter Miami 4-1 in a meeting of the Eastern Conference's top two teams. Hany Mukhtar scored a pair of second-half goals as Nashville stayed atop the MLS standings.
Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF result & closing oddsAl-Nassr v Al-Fateh
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3-0 at Alawwal Park in their opening match of the 2026-27 Saudi Pro League season on 15 August 2026, with goals from Angelo, Joao Felix and Samu Costa.
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh result & closing oddsRosario Central v Corinthians
The Copa Libertadores round of 16 first leg finished 0-0 in Rosario on 14 August 2026.
Rosario Central vs Corinthians result & closing oddsCruzeiro v Flamengo
The Copa Libertadores round of 16 first leg between Cruzeiro and Flamengo finished 1-1, with Keny Arroyo scoring for Cruzeiro in the 53rd minute and Lucas Paqueta equalising in the 67th.
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo result & closing oddsBotafogo v Fluminense
Botafogo and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Brasileirao derby at the Nilton Santos, with Alex Telles putting Botafogo ahead in the 44th minute and Ignacio equalising for Fluminense in the 58th.
Botafogo vs Fluminense result & closing oddsInter Miami CF v Monterrey
Monterrey beat Inter Miami 2-1 in their Leagues Cup Phase One match. Rodrigo De Paul put Miami ahead in the 32nd minute, but Monterrey equalized and Diego Rossi scored the winner in the 90th minute.
Inter Miami CF vs Monterrey result & closing oddsLos Angeles FC v Guadalajara
LAFC and Guadalajara drew 1-1 at BMO Stadium in Leagues Cup Phase One, Denis Bouanga scoring in the 38th minute and Roberto Alvarado equalising in the 42nd. LAFC took the extra point 5-4 on penalties.
Los Angeles FC vs Guadalajara result & closing oddsInter Miami CF v Atlético San Luis
Inter Miami CF came from behind to beat Atletico de San Luis 4-2 at Nu Stadium in their opening game of the 2026 Leagues Cup, with Lionel Messi scoring twice in his first start since the World Cup.
Inter Miami CF vs Atlético San Luis result & closing oddsFenerbahce v Sturm Graz
Fenerbahce beat Sturm Graz 2-0 in the first leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie in Istanbul, with Anderson Talisca scoring in the 9th minute and Mason Greenwood in the 45th.
Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz result & closing oddsRiver Plate v Rosario Central
Rosario Central won 1-0 away to River Plate in the Liga Profesional Clausura. The decisive goal came from a Nicolas Otamendi own goal in the first half.
River Plate vs Rosario Central result & closing oddsNewell's Old Boys v Boca Juniors
Newell's Old Boys and Boca Juniors drew 2-2 in Rosario in the Liga Profesional Clausura. Santiago Ascacibar and Alan Velasco scored for Boca, while Matias Coccaro and Luca Regiardo replied for Newell's.
Newell's Old Boys vs Boca Juniors result & closing oddsInter Miami CF v Columbus Crew SC
Inter Miami and Columbus Crew drew 2-2 in Fort Lauderdale. Luis Suarez opened the scoring in the 16th minute and Brais Mendez equalized for Columbus with an 84th-minute free kick, ending Miami's six-game winning streak.
Inter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew SC result & closing oddsSão Paulo v Santos
Santos are 3.85 outsiders at São Paulo, but four points, a 18-14 head-to-head and Neymar's return say the derby price is bigger than it should be.
São Paulo vs Santos odds & analysisFlamengo v Sao Paulo
Flamengo and Sao Paulo drew 1-1 in Serie A in Rio de Janeiro. Leo Pereira put Flamengo ahead in the 57th minute and Jonathan Calleri equalised for Sao Paulo in the 70th.
Flamengo vs Sao Paulo result & closing oddsInter Miami CF v Chicago Fire
Inter Miami CF beat Chicago Fire 3-2, with Luis Suarez scoring twice and Preston Plambeck adding the winner in the 87th minute, spoiling Robert Lewandowski's MLS debut for Chicago.
Inter Miami CF vs Chicago Fire result & closing oddsSpain v Argentina
The World Cup final was goalless after 90 minutes, so the match-winner market settles as a draw. Ferran Torres scored in the 106th minute of extra time and Spain beat Argentina 1-0 to win the trophy.
Spain vs Argentina result & closing oddsBefore you bet
Read these first
How to find value bets
Turn a three-way home, draw, or away price into implied probability, remove the margin, and compare the same 1X2 market across books.
Betting terms explained
Use the glossary for 1X2 odds, overround, line shopping, and closing-line value before comparing a football price.
How public betting moves odds
Marquee clubs and primetime fixtures attract attention. Check whether the 1X2, total, or handicap actually moved away from fair value.
Where to bet on football
Compare the identical football market and settlement rules, then take the strongest documented price and payment fit.