Cruzeiro vs Flamengo closing odds, compared across 9 partners · kept on record.
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo prediction
Our pickCruzeiro3.06×best price · BetOnline
The market prices Cruzeiro at 2.8 on the back of Flamengo's league dominance. The knockout head-to-head (5 advances to 4) says the crowd is reading from the wrong ledger.
Main risk
Flamengo are reigning champions who went through their group unbeaten and concede at less than half Cruzeiro's rate in the league.
5-4Knockout ties advanced: Cruzeiro over Flamengo across nine meetings
16Flamengo's group-stage points from 18, best in the competition
2.8Current price on Cruzeiro to win this first leg
Evidence confidence: The nine-tie knockout head-to-head and Cruzeiro's perfect group-stage advancement history are hard results; the 37 percent crowd split on Flamengo is market behaviour, not a forecast.
Scheduled Full timeEstadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto (Mineirao), Belo Horizonte
In Brazil the first leg is on free-to-air TV nationally on Rede Globo, and also streams on the GE TV YouTube channel and on Paramount+. Globo selected both this leg and the 19 August return at the Maracana for its open-TV window. These listings are Brazil-only; rights outside Brazil are sold separately and are not covered by this source.
Availability note: Cruzeiro are without right-back Fagner and midfielder Lucas Romero, both automatically suspended for the first leg after picking up a third booking against Barcelona-EQU; both are free to play the return leg at the Maracana, and CONMEBOL wipes yellow cards from the round of 16 onwards. Flamengo's only absence reported before the tie is winger Luiz Araujo, still working back from a left knee injury. Neither club has published a final injury report or a confirmed starting XI for this match, so treat any named line-up as prediction rather than fact; the clubs' own news pages are the place the confirmed team sheets appear. Diario Celeste
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The clubs have met 103 times in all: 39 Flamengo wins, 28 draws, 36 Cruzeiro wins. Flamengo have dominated the recent league meetings (12 wins to 3 in the last 20), but in the nine knockout ties the two have contested, Cruzeiro have gone through five times to Flamengo's four. This is their first Libertadores knockout meeting since the 2018 round of 16.
Fagnersuspendedthird yellow card (booked against Barcelona-EQU)
Lucas Romerosuspendedthird yellow card (booked against Barcelona-EQU)
No starting XI has been published by the club. Both suspended players return for the second leg at the Maracana, and CONMEBOL clears accumulated yellow cards from the round of 16 onwards.
Luiz Araujodoubtleft knee injury, following a separate recovery programme
No official injury report or starting XI has been published for this tie. Luiz Araujo was the only absentee the club still listed as injured before the league match on 9 August, and was reported as expected to be available for this game; that has not been confirmed.
Flamengo dominate Cruzeiro in Serie A, but across nine knockout ties Cruzeiro have advanced five times to Flamengo's four, and it is that record, not the points table, that this round of 16 is decided on.
Across nine knockout meetings these two sides have shared, Cruzeiro went through five times and Flamengo four, and that ledger matters more than the league table when a tie needs to be decided.
Cruzeiro at 2.8 carries value. The crowd is pricing Flamengo's league superiority into a knockout tie, and the head-to-head record in that format runs the other way.
Opening odds, Mon 10 Aug · 02:14 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Cruzeiro
2.80
Draw
2.90
Flamengo
2.37
Why the price may be wrong
The ledger the market ignores
Cruzeiro and Flamengo have met in nine knockout ties. Cruzeiro went through five, Flamengo four. That is a split across nine separate two-legged contests in the exact format this round of 16 uses. The market puts Flamengo at 37 percent likely to win this first leg while Cruzeiro sit at 32 percent. The knockout record does not produce those numbers.
Why the league table is the wrong frame
Flamengo are second in Serie A on 42 points. Cruzeiro are on 33. Over the last 20 meetings between the sides, Flamengo have won 12, drawn 5, and lost only 3. That form is real, and nobody here is pretending otherwise. Knockout football runs on different logic. A two-legged tie asks different questions from a weekly league rhythm, and on those questions Cruzeiro's record speaks first.
Cruzeiro's Libertadores credentials
This is Cruzeiro's first Libertadores campaign since 2019. They have advanced from every group stage they have ever played in the competition. In this edition they qualified second in Group D on 11 points, with three wins, two draws, and one defeat. Eight goals scored, three conceded. Clean sheets in four of the six group games. The one defeat came at home, 1-2 to Universidad Catolica at the Mineirao, which is exactly where this first leg is played.
The champion's case
Flamengo are defending the title they won in 2025. They went through their group unbeaten with 14 goals scored and two conceded, earning 16 points from a possible 18. CONMEBOL called it the best group campaign of the entire phase. In Serie A they have conceded only 18 league goals this season against Cruzeiro's 31. The form is exceptional, and the price at 2.37 reflects it.
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Flamengo are reigning champions who went through their group unbeaten and concede at less than half Cruzeiro's rate in the league.
The opposite case: Flamengo
Flamengo are the reigning champions who produced the competition's outstanding group stage, concede at less than half Cruzeiro's league rate, and have won 12 of the last 20 meetings between the sides. The crowd paying up for them is not making an irrational choice.
Why the Cruzeiro read survives
All of that data comes from the league, and the league is precisely where Flamengo's advantage shows. Across nine knockout ties the split is 5-4 to Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro have also advanced from every Libertadores group stage in their history, keeping clean sheets in four of six games in this one. The 2.8 price assumes league-form dominance transfers into knockout format. The knockout ledger says it does not.
What the other side needs: For Flamengo to be the correct pick, their nine-point league advantage and the quality gap in goals conceded (18 versus 31) would need to override Cruzeiro's home advantage in this first leg and the 5-4 knockout record. Cruzeiro also lose two starters for this leg only (Fagner and Lucas Romero, both suspended), thinning the right flank and midfield at a moment when Flamengo's attacking depth is close to full strength.
Common questions
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo: your questions answered
Who did we back for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Cruzeiro at 2.8 carries value. The crowd is pricing Flamengo's league superiority into a knockout tie, and the head-to-head record in that format runs the other way.
Who was the favourite?
Flamengo was the market favourite at a best price of 2.66×, about a 38% chance to win. Oddly Likely picked Cruzeiro at 3.06×.
What were the best odds for Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The closing prices we recorded were: Cruzeiro at 3.06× (BetOnline), Draw at 3.27× (1XBet) and Flamengo at 2.66× (ThunderPick). Prices last checked Wed 12 Aug · 22:04 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When was Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo took place on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. BRT at Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto (Mineirao), Belo Horizonte. That is Thu 13 Aug · 00:30 UTC.