Newcastle United vs Liverpool closing odds, compared across 6 partners · kept on record.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool prediction
Our pickLiverpool1.93×best price · ThunderPick
Isak arrives at St James' Park sharper and angrier than at any point in his Liverpool career, while the home side he left behind has been sold off and lost its manager.
Main risk
The last time Isak faced Liverpool in a match that mattered, he scored in a 2-1 cup final win for Newcastle.
3Premier League goals Isak scored in his debut Liverpool season, playing through a fractured fibula with no pre-season behind him
GBP 236.8mraised by Newcastle from the sales of Tonali, Guimaraes and Gordon this summer
1.87Liverpool's current market price
Evidence confidence: The summer sales, Isak's pre-season progress and the cup final result are hard facts on record. Whether the hostile crowd lifts Newcastle or fires Isak up is interpretation.
Scheduled Full timeSt James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle United and Liverpool drew 2-2 at St James' Park. Joe Willock put Newcastle ahead for a second time from the bench, but Dominik Szoboszlai equalised from the penalty spot in the ninth minute of added time.
Our pre-match read backed Liverpool. It did not come in.
Liverpool went off the 1.93 favourite, an implied 51.8%. The favourite did not come in: the match finished level, a result the books closed at 4.11.
Live on Sky Sports in the United Kingdom: the Premier League's opening-round schedule lists Newcastle United vs Liverpool on Sunday 23 August at 4:30pm as one of six Sky Sports broadcasts of the weekend. Premier League television rights are sold territory by territory, so coverage outside the UK is carried by the local rights-holder rather than Sky. Check the broadcaster listed for your country.
Current context: This is matchweek 1 of the 2026-27 Premier League season and the competitive debut of both head coaches: Andoni Iraola for Liverpool and Matthias Jaissle for Newcastle. The last time these sides met at St James' Park in the league, Liverpool won 3-2 through a 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha in the 10th minute of stoppage time against 10-man Newcastle. Eddie Howe left after nearly five years in charge, his decision to walk influenced by the sale of Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali. Jaissle arrives from Al Ahli, where he won back-to-back AFC Champions League titles, having never previously managed in the Premier League. ESPN · Sky Sports · ESPN · ESPN · Sky Sports
Availability note: No confirmed starting line-up is published for either side. Premier League teams release theirs about an hour before kick-off. Liverpool's official injury list, last updated 11 August 2026, has Conor Bradley (knee), Hugo Ekitike (ruptured Achilles), Giovanni Leoni (ACL) and Joe Gomez (muscle) unavailable, with Curtis Jones still working back from a hip issue and no suspensions; Alexander Isak is not on that list. Newcastle United have not published an equivalent official injury list. Head coach Matthias Jaissle said in mid-August that Fabian Schar (groin) and Lewis Miley (fractured fibula) were close to rejoining team training. Treat all of it as provisional and check the clubs' own updates on matchday. Liverpool FC (official injury list)
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Newcastle United have not published a starting XI or an official injury list for the opener. Matthias Jaissle said on 14 August that Fabian Schar (groin) and Lewis Miley (fractured fibula) were both close to being integrated into team training and could get minutes at the weekend. Nothing beyond that is officially confirmed. The club's news page carries the latest updates.
Liverpool
Lineup not yet published
Out or doubtful
Conor Bradleyoutknee surgery
Hugo Ekitikeoutruptured Achilles tendon
Giovanni LeonioutACL tear
Joe Gomezoutmuscle injury
Curtis Jonesdoubthip issue
No starting XI published. Taken from Liverpool's official injury list, last updated 11 August 2026, which also records no suspensions.
The short answer
With a full pre-season, a score to settle, and Newcastle stripped of its best players and its manager, Isak's hostile homecoming tilts a Liverpool side the market is underpricing.
Alexander Isak returns to St James' Park for the first time since forcing through his British-record move, and a striker with a full pre-season and a point to prove makes Liverpool worth backing at 1.87.
Back Liverpool. Isak walks into the most hostile atmosphere of his career with a full pre-season, a score to settle, and a Newcastle side that sold Tonali, Guimaraes and Gordon this summer and lost its manager in the process.
1.87×Liverpool to win
The evidence
The evidence behind the read.
What the market thinks
What the market thinks
Liverpool50
Newcastle United25
Draw25
What the market thinks
Label
Value
Liverpool
50
Newcastle United
25
Draw
25
Isak's Premier League goals for Liverpool
Isak's Premier League goals for Liverpool
3Debut season, 14 appearances, after a fractured fibula in December
Source: Sky Sports
Isak's Premier League goals for Liverpool
Measure
Value
Isak's Premier League goals for Liverpool
3
Newcastle's summer sales
Newcastle's summer sales (GBP m)
Sandro Tonali92.5
Bruno Guimaraes75
Anthony Gordon69.3
Newcastle's summer sales
Label
Value GBP m
Sandro Tonali
92.5 GBP m
Bruno Guimaraes
75 GBP m
Anthony Gordon
69.3 GBP m
Where they finished last season
Where they finished last season (points)
Liverpool60
Newcastle United49
Where they finished last season
Label
Value points
Liverpool
60 points
Newcastle United
49 points
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Liverpool 1.87Newcastle United 3.70Draw 3.75
Opening odds, Thu 20 Aug · 02:17 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Liverpool
1.87
Newcastle United
3.70
Draw
3.75
Why the price may be wrong
The Homecoming That Changes Everything
Alexander Isak refused to train to force this transfer through. Every Newcastle supporter inside St James' Park watched that happen, and they will make sure he remembers it from the first whistle. But crowd hostility rarely gives the home side an edge on the pitch, and in this case the theatre cuts the other way entirely. A striker who needs motivation has 52,000 people handing it to him for free. Isak did not leave Newcastle quietly, and he will not play quietly. (Sky Sports)
The Pre-Season Difference
Last September, Isak arrived at Liverpool carrying a British-record price tag and playing catch-up from day one, with no pre-season behind him. He still scored three Premier League goals before a fractured fibula in December ended his rhythm entirely. This time the circumstances are different. He scored against Monaco in pre-season, and Andoni Iraola confirmed he has had three or four weeks of quality training. The version of Isak that walks back into St James' Park on Sunday is sharper and angrier than the one who started 2025-26. (Sky Sports)
Newcastle Is Not the Team That Beat Liverpool
The counterargument here is the cup final: Isak scored, Dan Burn scored, Newcastle won 2-1 and ended a 70-year wait for a domestic trophy. That result matters to the supporters inside the ground. It should not matter to anyone assessing this fixture. That Newcastle team has been dismantled. The club raised GBP 236.8m from three sales this summer alone: Sandro Tonali to Tottenham for GBP 92.5m, Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal for GBP 75m, Anthony Gordon to Barcelona for GBP 69.3m. Eddie Howe walked when it became clear those players were leaving. The squad on the pitch on Sunday features seven new signings assembled on rebuild budgets and a head coach in Matthias Jaissle who has never managed a Premier League game. (Sky Sports, ESPN)
Why 1.87 May Be Generous
Liverpool finished last season on 60 points to Newcastle's 49, and that gap is wider now than those numbers suggest. Newcastle finished 2025-26 conceding more than they scored, and since then they have lost their three most influential players and their manager. Liverpool's own summer has not been painless: Mohamed Salah, Ibrahima Konate and Andy Robertson all left on free transfers, and the only paid sale was Luca Stephenson to Bolton for GBP 0.7m. That matters. But the alternative at 3.75 on the draw or 3.7 on Newcastle is a side that went negative on goals last season, that starts a debut Premier League manager, and that has not replaced what it lost. The price on Liverpool is not generous. The price on Newcastle is where the market has drifted. (ESPN)
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
The last time Isak faced Liverpool in a match that mattered, he scored in a 2-1 cup final win for Newcastle.
The opposite case: Newcastle United
Isak's Newcastle beat Liverpool 2-1 in the 2025 EFL Cup final, and St James' Park in full voice against a player who forced his way out is one of the most difficult away environments in English football.
Why the Liverpool read survives
That Newcastle side is gone. Tonali, Guimaraes and Gordon raised GBP 236.8m on their way out, Howe walked with them, and their replacement has never managed a Premier League minute. The atmosphere will be hostile. The squad on the pitch is not the one that won that cup.
What the other side needs: Newcastle win if Jaissle's rebuilt squad surprises on shape and structure in a debut Premier League game, if Liverpool's remodelled defence takes time to settle under a new manager, and if Isak's motivation burns inward rather than converting into goals.
Common questions
Newcastle United vs Liverpool: your questions answered
Who won Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Liverpool vs Newcastle United finished level at 2-2. Newcastle United and Liverpool drew 2-2 at St James' Park. Joe Willock put Newcastle ahead for a second time from the bench, but Dominik Szoboszlai equalised from the penalty spot in the ninth minute of added time.
Who did we back for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Back Liverpool. Isak walks into the most hostile atmosphere of his career with a full pre-season, a score to settle, and a Newcastle side that sold Tonali, Guimaraes and Gordon this summer and lost its manager in the process.
Who was the favourite?
Liverpool was the market favourite at a best price of 1.93×, about a 52% chance to win. Oddly Likely picked Liverpool too.
What were the best odds for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
The closing prices we recorded were: Liverpool at 1.93× (ThunderPick), Newcastle United at 3.94× (1XBet) and Draw at 4.11× (1XBet). Prices last checked Sat 22 Aug · 16:01 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When was Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Liverpool vs Newcastle United took place on Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. BST at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. That is Sun 23 Aug · 15:30 UTC.