Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United closing odds, compared across 6 partners · kept on record.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United prediction
Our pickNewcastle United3.17×best price · 1XBet
Spurs are 2.20 to win at home despite finishing 17th last season, recording just three home wins all year, and losing 3-0 on their opening day. Newcastle are 3.00 despite owning the fixture across six consecutive meetings and finishing above them in the table.
Main risk
Newcastle sold Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon this summer for £100m, £75m and £69.3m respectively, losing three of their most influential players and thinning the squad that finished above Spurs.
3Tottenham home league wins in 2025-26, joint-fewest by any surviving Premier League side
5-1-0Newcastle's record in the last six meetings with Tottenham (W-D-L)
3-0Tottenham's scoreline on matchday one of 2026-27, away at Brentford
Evidence confidence: The home record, final table position and head-to-head results are documented outcomes. The read that the market is slow to revise a big-club price downward is interpretation, not a measured figure.
Scheduled Full timeTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Tottenham's own fixture-change notice confirms the match stays on Saturday 29 August with kick-off moved to 5.30pm UK time, shown live on Sky Sports. Broadcast rights are territorial and this club source covers the United Kingdom only. Viewers elsewhere should check their local rights-holder listing.
Current context: Tottenham survived the 2025-26 Premier League season on the final day, beating Everton 1-0 through Joao Palhinha to stay up by a single point. Their home record that season, three league wins, was joint-fewest by any surviving side in the competition's history, matching Hull City's 2008-09 total. Newcastle open the new campaign under Matthias Jaissle, appointed head coach after the club paid Al-Ahli more than £9m in compensation for him. Sky Sports · ESPN
Availability note: No confirmed starting XI has been published by either club three days out, and neither club has released a final matchday injury report. Anything circulating now is a predicted line-up, not a confirmed one. Match previews report Tottenham without Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons and Mohammed Kudus, with Micky van de Ven, Pedro Porro and Pape Matar Sarr rated doubtful, and Newcastle without Joelinton and Valentino Livramento. Treat all of that as provisional and check the Premier League's official club-by-club injury list, which is updated through the week, for the current position. Premier League. Latest player injuries (official)
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Finished 17th in 2025-26 on 41 points; one match played in 2026-27
Newcastle United
Last 3
DDrew. Liverpool · 2-2 · Premier League
LLost. Fulham · 0-2 · Premier League
WWon. West Ham United · 3-1 · Premier League
Home and away
Opened 2026-27 with a home draw against Liverpool
Scored
2 in 1
Conceded
2 in 1
Clean sheets
0
Standing
Finished 12th in 2025-26 on 49 points with a minus-2 goal difference; one match played in 2026-27
Head-to-head
Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 Newcastle United10 Feb 2026 · Premier League
Newcastle United 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur2 Dec 2025 · Premier League
Newcastle United 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur29 Oct 2025 · EFL Cup
Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 Newcastle United4 Jan 2025 · Premier League
Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur1 Sep 2024 · Premier League
Newcastle United 4-0 Tottenham Hotspur13 Apr 2024 · Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 Newcastle United10 Dec 2023 · Premier League
Newcastle are unbeaten in the last six meetings across all competitions. Five wins and a draw. Tottenham's last win in the fixture was the 4-1 home victory in December 2023.
No starting XI has been confirmed by the club. The absences listed are as reported in matchday previews three days before kick-off, not a club-published injury report, and the doubts may yet be passed fit.
Newcastle United
Lineup not yet published
Out or doubtful
Joelintonoutinjury
Valentino Livramentooutinjury
No starting XI has been confirmed by the club. The absences listed are as reported in matchday previews three days before kick-off, not a club-published injury report.
The short answer
Tottenham are priced on their badge, not their record: a 17th-place finish, three home wins all season and a 3-0 opening defeat make them a fragile favourite against a Newcastle side that has not lost to them in six meetings.
The market has Spurs at 2.20 a week after they were taken apart at Brentford and a season after they barely survived relegation.
Newcastle at 3.00 looks mispriced. Tottenham finished 17th, won three home games all of last season and just lost 3-0. The head-to-head runs six unbeaten in Newcastle's favour. The home favourite price is built on reputation, not evidence.
3.00×Newcastle United to win
The evidence
The evidence behind the read.
What the market thinks
What the market thinks
Tottenham Hotspur43
Newcastle United31
Draw26
What the market thinks
Label
Value
Tottenham Hotspur
43
Newcastle United
31
Draw
26
The last six meetings
The last six meetings
Newcastle wins5
Draws1
Tottenham wins0
The last six meetings
Label
Value
Newcastle wins
5
Draws
1
Tottenham wins
0
Tottenham's home league wins last season
Tottenham's home league wins last season
3Joint-fewest by any side to survive relegation in a Premier League season
Source: Sky Sports
Tottenham's home league wins last season
Measure
Value
Tottenham's home league wins last season
3
Where they finished last season
Where they finished last season (points)
Newcastle United49
Tottenham Hotspur41
Where they finished last season
Label
Value points
Newcastle United
49 points
Tottenham Hotspur
41 points
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Tottenham Hotspur 2.20Draw 3.60Newcastle United 3.00
Opening odds, Wed 26 Aug · 02:30 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Tottenham Hotspur
2.20
Draw
3.60
Newcastle United
3.00
Why the price may be wrong
Seventeenth on merit
Tottenham finished 17th in the Premier League last season. Ten wins, 11 draws, 17 defeats, a minus-9 goal difference, 41 points. They avoided relegation only because they beat Everton 1-0 on the final day, with Joao Palhinha's goal sending West Ham down instead. The home record is the most damning part: three league wins at home all season, the joint-fewest ever recorded by a surviving side in the competition's history, matching Hull City in 2008-09. No other team that stayed up has been that bad on their own ground in the Premier League era. Tottenham were still priced at 2.20 to win at home before a ball had been kicked in 2026-27. (Sky Sports)
The 3-0 has not moved the market
On 22 August, Tottenham were beaten 3-0 at Brentford on the opening day of 2026-27. Keane Lewis-Potter and Vitaly Janelt scored before half-time. Michael Kayode added a third after the break. Sandro Tonali, signed from Newcastle for a club-record £100m, was mocked by the Brentford crowd on his debut, with his performance widely described as a poor return on the fee. None of that shifted the odds in any meaningful way. Spurs remain the favourites. The price treats this result as a blip from a name club rather than confirmation of a pattern from a team that needed the final day to survive.
Newcastle own this fixture
The head-to-head record is not competitive. Newcastle have won five of the last six meetings without losing once. That run includes a 4-0 at St James' Park in April 2024 and a 2-1 win in London in February 2026. Tottenham's only win in seven meetings was a 4-1 home result back in December 2023. Six unbeaten is the figure backed by the match-by-match record. Against that backdrop, Newcastle at 3.00 is the team with form in the fixture being priced as though they are the underdog in every meaningful sense.
Finished above them, still priced below
Newcastle ended last season on 49 points. Tottenham finished on 41. The gap between them in the table was clear, and it came in a season where survival went down to the final day for Spurs. Yet the market prices Tottenham at 2.20 and Newcastle at 3.00. The summer sales are the explanation the market is leaning on: Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon left for £100m, £75m and £69.3m respectively. The squad is thinner. But Newcastle drew 2-2 with Liverpool on the opening weekend, leading twice before a 99th-minute penalty rescued a point. A side that can hold Liverpool can produce a result at Tottenham.
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Newcastle sold Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon this summer for £100m, £75m and £69.3m respectively, losing three of their most influential players and thinning the squad that finished above Spurs.
The opposite case: Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle sold their midfield and attacking spine this summer. Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon left for £100m, £75m and £69.3m. The squad that finished above Spurs has been dismantled. Matthias Jaissle has never managed a Premier League game and his system has had one match to settle. The departures alone justify a heavy correction in the relative prices, and Spurs hosting on their own ground adds the one variable the head-to-head does not capture.
Why the Newcastle United read survives
The market already knows about the sales. They happened in public. Newcastle are priced at 3.00, not 1.50, which means the departures are already discounted into the price. What the market has not fully adjusted for is that Tottenham are still the same side that finished 17th, won three games at home and survived by a single point. Newcastle finished on 49 points, Tottenham on 41. The head-to-head gap is five wins from six. One summer of sales does not close both gaps at once. Newcastle drew with Liverpool on matchday one after leading twice. Spurs lost 3-0. The current prices do not reflect that recent evidence.
What the other side needs: For Tottenham to justify 2.20, Tonali needs to find his feet quickly and lift the midfield. The home form from the back half of last season, one loss in their last six at home, needs to carry over rather than the full-season figure. Newcastle's rebuilt squad, running without Guimaraes in the engine room, needs time to click, leaving the visitors unable to impose themselves. If Jaissle's side is still finding shape and Spurs' attackers are sharp from the start, the home side could win without much trouble and the price would look reasonable in hindsight.
Common questions
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United: your questions answered
Who won Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
Newcastle United won 0-2. Newcastle United won 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with second-half goals from Anthony Elanga in the 62nd minute and Yoane Wissa in the 72nd.
Who did we back for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
Newcastle at 3.00 looks mispriced. Tottenham finished 17th, won three home games all of last season and just lost 3-0. The head-to-head runs six unbeaten in Newcastle's favour. The home favourite price is built on reputation, not evidence.
Who was the favourite?
Tottenham Hotspur was the market favourite at a best price of 2.30×, about a 44% chance to win. Oddly Likely picked Newcastle United at 3.17×.
What were the best odds for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
The closing prices we recorded were: Tottenham Hotspur at 2.30× (1XBet), Draw at 3.83× (ThunderPick) and Newcastle United at 3.17× (1XBet). Prices last checked Sat 29 Aug · 16:01 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When was Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United took place on Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 5:30 p.m. BST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London. That is Sat 29 Aug · 16:30 UTC.