Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu betting odds, compared across 9 partners · updated daily until the start.
The public downgraded Errol Spence over a single loss to the best fighter alive, and his 1.7 price against a battered Tim Tszyu is the mistake made visible.
28-1Spence's career record, undisputed at welterweight
1.7Spence's price as the favourite the crowd doubts
3Tszyu's defeats across his recent stretch
Strongest counterargument: Spence is 36 with a near three-year layoff, a new trainer and a two-division move up, while Tszyu is younger, busier and fighting at home.
Evidence confidence: The 28-1 record, the one loss to Crawford and Tszyu's three defeats are hard results; the 53/47 market read is interpretation, not fact.
Starts UpcomingAfterpay Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, Sydney, Australia
Spence is 28-1 with his only defeat coming to a generational great, and against a three-loss Tim Tszyu he is the value the crowd wrote off too fast.
One loss to Terence Crawford turned an undisputed champion into an afterthought, and the price against Tim Tszyu is where that overreaction shows.
Back Errol Spence. The crowd priced a comeback fighter off one loss to Terence Crawford, and 28-1 with 22 knockouts against a man beaten three times in his recent run is worth more than 1.7.
1.70×Errol Spence Jr to win
The evidence
The evidence behind the read.
What the market gives each man
What the market gives each man
Errol Spence Jr53
Tim Tszyu47
What the market gives each man
Label
Value
Errol Spence Jr
53
Tim Tszyu
47
Career defeats
Career defeats (losses)
Errol Spence Jr1
Tim Tszyu3
Source: ESPN
Career defeats
Label
Value losses
Errol Spence Jr
1 losses
Tim Tszyu
3 losses
Career knockouts
Career knockouts (KOs)
Errol Spence Jr22
Tim Tszyu18
Career knockouts
Label
Value KOs
Errol Spence Jr
22 KOs
Tim Tszyu
18 KOs
The weight Spence is climbing to
The weight Spence is climbing to
160Two divisions above his 147 lb undisputed welterweight peak
The weight Spence is climbing to
Measure
Value
The weight Spence is climbing to
160
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Errol Spence Jr 1.70Tim Tszyu 1.90
Opening odds, Fri 24 Jul · 16:40 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Errol Spence Jr
1.70
Tim Tszyu
1.90
Why the price may be wrong
The loss everyone remembers was to the best fighter alive
Spence's record reads 28-1. The one is Terence Crawford, a generational talent, who stopped him in the ninth round in July 2023. That is the whole case against him. Losing to Crawford is not decline. It is running into the best fighter of the era on the wrong night. Strip that result of its context and you get the public read that has Tszyu as the pick. Put the context back and you have an undisputed welterweight champion whose only blemish came against a great.
Tszyu is the one who has actually been beaten lately
The man being backed to win lost his WBO title to Sebastian Fundora by split decision in March 2024, then got stopped in the third by Bakhram Murtazaliev in October after four knockdowns. He lost the Fundora rematch by unanimous decision in July 2025. That is three defeats before the current rebuild. The two wins since, over Anthony Velazquez and Denis Nurja, steadied him, but the recent damage is on Tszyu's side of the ledger, not Spence's. (ESPN)
The price says close, the record says otherwise
The market gives it 53 to 47, Spence at 1.7 and Tszyu at 1.9, close to a coin flip for a former undisputed champion against a fighter stopped inside the year. Compare the resumes. Spence carries 28-1 with 22 knockouts. Tszyu sits at 27-3 with 18. The layoff and the weight move keep the number generous, and that gap between what Spence has done and what he costs is the whole reason to take him.
An expert who weighed the doubts still lands on Spence
The fears are real and worth naming. Spence has not fought in nearly three years, he arrives with new trainer Ronnie Shields after splitting from Derrick James, and he is climbing to 160 after being undisputed at 147. Robert Garcia leans Tszyu, even by stoppage, for exactly those reasons. But former world champion Raul Marquez looked at the same layoff, the same trainer change and the same move up, and still picks Spence by decision. The split is not blind faith. It is a live disagreement, and the value is on the doubted side. (ESPN)
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Spence is 36 with a near three-year layoff, a new trainer and a two-division move up, while Tszyu is younger, busier and fighting at home.
The opposite case: Tim Tszyu
Spence turns up at 36 after nearly three years out, with a new trainer and a two-division climb to 160, while Tszyu is the younger, busier man fighting in front of his home crowd in Sydney.
Why the Errol Spence Jr read survives
Those are the exact reasons the price is 1.7 rather than something much shorter, and a former world champion in Raul Marquez weighed every one of them and still calls it Spence. The layoff explains the number; it does not erase 28-1.
What the other side needs: Take Tszyu if you believe three years out of the ring has quietly ended Spence's prime, that the jump to 160 leaves him slower and softer, and that the two comeback wins mean Tszyu has already put the Fundora and Murtazaliev nights behind him.
Common questions
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu: your questions answered
What are the best odds for Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu?
The best prices across our ranked partners are: Errol Spence Jr at 1.70× and Tim Tszyu at 1.90×. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When is Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu?
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu starts on Sun 26 Jul · 04:00 UTC at Afterpay Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, Sydney, Australia. All times are shown in UTC.
Who is the favourite?
Errol Spence Jr is the favourite at a best price of 1.70×, the shortest price on the board and the outcome the market rates most likely.