Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu closing odds, compared across 9 partners · kept on record.
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu prediction
Our pickErrol Spence Jr2.02×best price · BC.Game
The public overreacted to one loss against the best fighter alive, and Spence at 1.7 is priced better than a 28-1 former undisputed champion should be.
Main risk
Tszyu is younger, busier and fighting at home, while Spence returns at 36 after nearly three years out with a new trainer and a two-division climb in weight.
Evidence confidence: The records, the Crawford loss and Tszyu's three defeats are hard results; the read that the crowd overreacted and that 1.7 is generous is interpretation.
Scheduled Full timeAfterpay Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, Sydney, Australia
Tim Tszyu beat Errol Spence Jr by unanimous decision, 118-110 and 117-111 twice, at Afterpay Arena in Sydney. Spence, in his first fight in nearly three years, announced his retirement after the bout.
Our pre-match read backed Errol Spence Jr. It did not come in.
Errol Spence Jr went off the 2.02 favourite, an implied 49.5%. The favourite did not come in: Tim Tszyu won at a closing best of 2.63.
One night against Terence Crawford turned Errol Spence from undisputed champion to written-off in the public's eyes, but 28-1 with his only defeat to an all-time great is not decline, and at 1.7 against a three-loss Tszyu he is the value the crowd talked themselves out of.
Spence is 28-1 with his only loss to Terence Crawford, yet the room has him as the underdog against a three-loss Tim Tszyu.
Back Errol Spence. A 28-1 former undisputed champion whose only loss came to a generational talent should not be the price he is against a fighter who has lost three of his recent bouts.
1.70×Errol Spence Jr to win
The evidence
The evidence behind the read.
What the market gives each man
What the market gives each man
Errol Spence Jr53
Tim Tszyu47
What the market gives each man
Label
Value
Errol Spence Jr
53
Tim Tszyu
47
Career defeats
Career defeats (losses)
Errol Spence Jr1
Tim Tszyu3
Career defeats
Label
Value losses
Errol Spence Jr
1 losses
Tim Tszyu
3 losses
Career knockouts
Career knockouts (KOs)
Errol Spence Jr22
Tim Tszyu18
Career knockouts
Label
Value KOs
Errol Spence Jr
22 KOs
Tim Tszyu
18 KOs
The weight Spence is climbing to
The weight Spence is climbing to
160Two divisions above his 147 lb undisputed welterweight peak
The weight Spence is climbing to
Measure
Value
The weight Spence is climbing to
160
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Errol Spence Jr 1.70Tim Tszyu 1.90
Opening odds, Fri 24 Jul · 16:40 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Errol Spence Jr
1.70
Tim Tszyu
1.90
Why the price may be wrong
The record the crowd stopped looking at
Errol Spence is 28-1 with 22 knockouts and reigned as the undisputed welterweight champion at his peak. One defeat sits on that record. The public treats him like a faded name, but the ledger says otherwise. This is a former undisputed champion being sold as an underdog, and the gap between what he has done and how he is priced is the whole case.
The loss they misread
Spence's single defeat came in July 2023, a ninth-round TKO to Terence Crawford, a generational, all-time great. That is not the fingerprint of decline. That is losing to the best fighter alive, nearly three years ago. Every fighter who shares a ring with Crawford risks the same night. Reading it as proof Spence is finished is the mistake the room made.
The man across from him has lost three
Tim Tszyu enters at 27-3. He lost his WBO 154 lb title to Sebastian Fundora on a split decision in March 2024, then was stopped in the third round by Bakhram Murtazaliev in October after four knockdowns. He lost a July 2025 rematch to Fundora on the cards as well. Tszyu has since rebuilt with two wins, but the recent stretch that supposedly makes him the pick contains three defeats, two more than the man he is favoured over. (ESPN)
Why the price is this generous
Spence is 1.7, Tszyu 1.9. The market gives each man a near even share, 53 to 47. That closeness is built on the fears: 36 years old, nearly three years out, a new trainer in Ronnie Shields, and a two-division climb to 160 after being undisputed at 147. Those are real question marks. They are also exactly why a 28-1 former undisputed champion is available at a price he would never carry with an active prime behind him. (ESPN)
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Tszyu is younger, busier and fighting at home, while Spence returns at 36 after nearly three years out with a new trainer and a two-division climb in weight.
The opposite case: Tim Tszyu
Tszyu is the younger, busier man fighting in front of his own crowd in Sydney, while Spence returns at 36 after nearly three years away, with a new trainer and moving up two divisions on a body that could no longer make welterweight.
Why the Errol Spence Jr read survives
Those fears are already baked into a price this generous, and the layoff, the trainer change and the weight jump are the reasons Spence is 1.7 rather than the reasons he loses. Former world champion Raul Marquez weighed all of it and still picks Spence by decision.
What the other side needs: The other side needs the layoff to have genuinely taken Spence's timing and durability, the move to 160 to leave him slow and hittable, and Tszyu's two rebuild wins to mark a fighter back to his best rather than one padding a record after three losses.
Common questions
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu: your questions answered
Who won Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu?
Tim Tszyu won UD. Tim Tszyu beat Errol Spence Jr by unanimous decision, 118-110 and 117-111 twice, at Afterpay Arena in Sydney. Spence, in his first fight in nearly three years, announced his retirement after the bout.
Who did we back for Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu?
Back Errol Spence. A 28-1 former undisputed champion whose only loss came to a generational talent should not be the price he is against a fighter who has lost three of his recent bouts.
Who was the favourite?
Errol Spence Jr was the market favourite at a best price of 2.02×, about a 50% chance to win. Oddly Likely picked Errol Spence Jr too.
What were the best odds for Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu?
The closing prices we recorded were: Errol Spence Jr at 2.02× (BC.Game) and Tim Tszyu at 2.63× (BetOnline). Prices last checked Sun 26 Jul · 03:49 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When was Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu?
Errol Spence Jr vs Tim Tszyu took place on Sun 26 Jul · 04:00 UTC at Afterpay Arena, Sydney Olympic Park, Sydney, Australia. All times are shown in UTC.