0:17 of R5How Berlanga's last fight ended after knockdowns in rounds 4 and 5
32Butler's career knockouts, against Berlanga's 18
Round 2Butler's most recent finish, over Ramadan Hiseni in March 2026
Evidence confidence: The Sheeraz stoppage and Butler's knockout count are hard results; the market split and the soft-demand chatter are interpretation.
Scheduled Full timeTheater at Madison Square Garden, New York City
Edgar Berlanga recovered from an early knockdown to stop Steven Butler by TKO at 1:14 of round seven in their super middleweight bout at Zuffa Boxing 9 at Madison Square Garden.
Our pre-match read backed Steven Butler. It did not come in.
The closing market agreed: Edgar Berlanga went off the 1.35 favourite, an implied 74.1%, and the favourite came in.
The last time Berlanga was truly hurt he was dropped repeatedly and stopped inside five rounds, and Butler is exactly the finisher built to force that collapse again, which makes the underdog price too big.
Berlanga was dropped twice and stopped inside five last summer, and Butler brings 32 knockouts to a fight the market has all but conceded.
Back Steven Butler. Berlanga was dropped twice and stopped inside five rounds a year ago, Butler carries 32 knockouts, and at 3.5 the underdog price does not respect how this man loses.
Opening odds, Sat 25 Jul · 15:00 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Edgar Berlanga
1.28
Steven Butler
3.50
Why the price may be wrong
The collapse everyone saw
Twelve months ago Berlanga was not just beaten, he was broken. Hamzah Sheeraz dropped him repeatedly across rounds four and five before the fight was waved off 17 seconds into the fifth. That is the blueprint. When a bigger, heavier hitter lands clean on Berlanga, he does not survive on grit, he goes down and stays in trouble. This is not ancient history or a fluke on a bad night. It is the most recent thing we know about him under real fire. (ESPN)
Butler finishes people
Steven Butler is the specific type of opponent who can drag Berlanga back to that fifth round. He owns 32 knockouts against Berlanga's 18, and he is not a faded name limping in. He arrives on a four-fight win streak, most recently a second-round knockout of Ramadan Hiseni in March 2026. A 32-KO finisher with current form and a live chin-cracker is exactly the profile that ended Berlanga's night last summer.
Cold, spotlit, and priced on a name
Berlanga returns a full year out of the ring for his Zuffa Boxing debut, headlining at the Theater at Madison Square Garden and framing the night as destiny. He is 1-2 across his last three, with the Sheeraz stoppage and a full-distance decision loss to Canelo before it. The market gives him 73 to Butler's 27, and books make him a heavy favourite. That price leans on the storybook billing and the memory of his early power, not on a man who has looked untouchable lately.
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Berlanga's power is genuine, and that reputation is what the crowd is paying a premium for.
The opposite case: Edgar Berlanga
Berlanga's power is real, not a myth. He opened his career 16-0 with every single win by first-round knockout, a modern record run, and one clean shot from him can end any night early.
Why the Steven Butler read survives
That early record is the name the crowd is paying for, not a shield. Berlanga is a full year cold and has already been folded once by a heavier hitter, while all five of Butler's defeats came by knockout only against world-level names like Murata and Alimkhanuly. One clean Butler shot drags Berlanga straight back to that fifth-round collapse.
What the other side needs: For Berlanga to justify the short price, the year out has to have been rest rather than rust, his own power has to land first, and Butler's five stoppage losses have to prove the underdog is the one who breaks when hurt.
Common questions
Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler: your questions answered
Who won Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler?
Edgar Berlanga won TKO R7. Edgar Berlanga recovered from an early knockdown to stop Steven Butler by TKO at 1:14 of round seven in their super middleweight bout at Zuffa Boxing 9 at Madison Square Garden.
Who did we back for Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler?
Back Steven Butler. Berlanga was dropped twice and stopped inside five rounds a year ago, Butler carries 32 knockouts, and at 3.5 the underdog price does not respect how this man loses.
Who was the favourite?
Edgar Berlanga was the market favourite at a best price of 1.35×, about a 74% chance to win. Oddly Likely picked Steven Butler at 4.45×.
What were the best odds for Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler?
The closing prices we recorded were: Edgar Berlanga at 1.35× (ThunderPick) and Steven Butler at 4.45× (CloudBet). Prices last checked Sun 26 Jul · 22:01 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When was Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler?
Edgar Berlanga vs Steven Butler took place on Mon 27 Jul · 02:00 UTC at Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City. All times are shown in UTC.