# Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams Odds & Prediction 2026 > Venus Williams is priced at 5.00 at the 2026 US Open, carrying 13 straight losses. Her opponent has won just one match in five this season. Is 19% fair? Canonical: https://oddlylikely.com/markets/venus-williams-v-sofia-kenin-2026-08-30.html Status: upcoming Event: Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin Competition: US Open Start: 2026-08-30T15:00:00Z (Sun 30 Aug ยท 15:00 UTC) Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York Market: match winner Updated: 2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z ## Editorial read At 5.00, Venus is priced purely on the losing streak. The argument is that Kenin's 20% win rate this season makes that price fragile. ## Short answer Venus Williams at 5.00 is worth backing. The price reflects her losing run, not Kenin's form. A player at 1.14 who wins one match in five this season is not a banker. ## Key evidence - 13: Consecutive singles defeats for Venus entering this match - 20%: Kenin's singles win rate across all matches in 2026 - 19%: Probability the market assigns Venus to win - 2: US Open titles Venus won at Flushing Meadows ## Recorded prices Prices are decimal snapshots, not live quotes. - #1 BetOnline: Sofia Kenin 1.16; Venus Williams 5.58 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:13.844Z) - #2 ThunderPick: Sofia Kenin 1.14; Venus Williams 5.63 (checked 2026-08-28T16:02:18.095Z) - #3 SportsBetting: Sofia Kenin 1.16; Venus Williams 5.58 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:13.844Z) - #4 22Bet: Sofia Kenin 1.15; Venus Williams 5.45 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z) - #6 BC.Game: Sofia Kenin 1.12; Venus Williams 5.40 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z) - #7 CloudBet: Sofia Kenin 1.13; Venus Williams 5.75 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:10.875Z) - #8 1XBet: Sofia Kenin 1.15; Venus Williams 5.45 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z) - #9 Stake: Sofia Kenin 1.13; Venus Williams 5.00 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z) - #10 MelBet: Sofia Kenin 1.13; Venus Williams 5.43 (checked 2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z) ## Analysis ### The Price Is Built on 13 Losses, Not on Kenin's Form The market assigns Sofia Kenin 81% and Venus Williams 19%. That split tracks Venus's losing streak, which stands at 13 consecutive singles defeats. Her last win came in July 2025, and she has not been past the first round at the US Open since 2019. The slide is documented and real. But the 81% assigned to Kenin demands scrutiny. Kenin has won four matches and lost sixteen in 2026, a 20% win rate across all tour-level matches. She is ranked No.115, down from a career high of No.4. The price of 1.14 implies she wins about 88% of such matches. No player posting a 20% win rate this season has earned that number on current form alone. ### Two Titles on This Court Venus Williams won the US Open in 2000 and 2001, beating Lindsay Davenport in the 2000 final and then her sister Serena in 2001. She first played in New York 29 years ago, reaching the final on her debut in 1997. None of that history transfers to the scoreboard. But this court is not unfamiliar territory in any abstract sense. It is literally where she played the best tennis of her career. The USTA wild card that placed her in this draw was initially held for Serena, who chose doubles only. When Serena passed, the spot went to Kenin, and the draw then produced this particular first-round match. ### She Is Not Arriving Cold The case against Venus in this spot usually assumes she is a fading name showing up on sentiment alone. The schedule does not support that framing. She played in Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati in the last month, entering singles and doubles draws at all three. The Cincinnati result was a 6-2, 6-2 loss to qualifier Emiliana Arango on 14 August. That confirms the level concern. It does not confirm inactivity. Kenin, for her part, did take a set off world No.11 Marta Kostyuk in Cincinnati, which is worth registering. But she has also been eliminated in two of her last three opening tour matches this year, all on hard court. ## Strongest opposing case Venus has won just one of her last nine opening-round sets at this event, is holding serve at 59% in 2026, and has not advanced past the first round of any Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2021. Kenin is 25 years younger, converts over 44% of break points, and showed enough in Cincinnati to suggest she is not simply collecting losses. ## Response Kenin's own 2026 record is four wins from twenty matches. A price of 1.14 implies near-certainty, and that is not a number Kenin's form justifies. Venus has played Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati in the past month. She is not arriving cold. At 5.00, the value sits with the underdog whose opponent has been statistically almost as unreliable this season. ## Practical information - Watching: ESPN is the exclusive US domestic rights holder and covers all 16 courts from Sunday, August 30. First-round Day 1 coverage runs on ABC from noon ET, ESPN2 from 3 p.m. ET and ESPN from 4:30 p.m. ET, with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes from 5:30 p.m. ET; every match from every court streams in the ESPN App for ESPN Unlimited subscribers, and Disney+ subscribers can access select Day 1 action. These are United States entitlements only. Outside the US the tournament is shown by local rights holders, and no streaming access outside a viewer's own subscription is implied. - Availability: Both players are in the main draw as wild cards and neither has published a withdrawal. Tennis has no lineup or injury report equivalent. There is no official pre-match fitness bulletin for either player, so nothing about their physical condition should be assumed. The US Open's Schedule of Play page still reads 'Stay tuned for the 2026 Schedule of Play', so the court and exact start time for this first-round match were not published as of 28 August; the day session on Sunday, 30 August begins at 11 a.m. ET. Check the official draw and Schedule of Play for the final court assignment. ## Sources - [AP News](https://apnews.com/article/venus-williams-cincinnati-tennis-32a5871e7a1fe021b2658253ab4296f9) - [BBC Sport](https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/ckgew7881lno) - [AP News via Inquirer](https://sports.inquirer.net/691936/venus-williams-plays-sofia-kenin-in-us-open-first-round) - [US Open official Women's Singles draw](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/draws/index.html) - [ESPN Press Room (official rights-holder release)](https://espnpressroom.com/press-release/espn-presents-all-of-the-2026-us-open-all-in-one-place/) - [US Open official Schedule of Play](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/schedule/index.html) - [Tennis Tonic head-to-head profile](https://tennistonic.com/head-to-head-compare/Venus-Williams-Vs-Sofia-Kenin/) - [Sports Mole match preview](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/us-open/preview/venus-williams-vs-sofia-kenin-prediction-form_603881.html) ## More from Oddly Likely - [All market analyses](https://oddlylikely.com/markets.html) - [Structured market record](https://oddlylikely.com/api/v1/markets/venus-williams-v-sofia-kenin-2026-08-30.json) - [Developer resources](https://oddlylikely.com/developers.html) - [Methodology](https://oddlylikely.com/methodology.html) - [Responsible gambling](https://oddlylikely.com/responsible-gambling.html) Educational analysis only. 18+. 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