Sun 30 Aug · 11:00 ET · USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York · odds compared across 9 partners.
Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin prediction
Our pickVenus Williams to win5.75×best price · CloudBet
At 5.00, Venus is priced purely on the losing streak. The argument is that Kenin's 20% win rate this season makes that price fragile.
Main risk
Venus has won just one of her last nine opening-round sets at this event and is holding serve at 59% in 2026, well below the level needed to beat even a faded opponent.
13Consecutive singles defeats for Venus entering this match
20%Kenin's singles win rate across all matches in 2026
19%Probability the market assigns Venus to win
Evidence confidence: The 13-match losing streak and Kenin's 20% season win rate are hard recorded results. The crowd-sentiment reading and the venue-familiarity argument are interpretive context, not data.
Starts UpcomingUSTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York
ESPN is the exclusive US domestic rights holder and covers all 16 courts from Sunday, August 30. First-round Day 1 coverage runs on ABC from noon ET, ESPN2 from 3 p.m. ET and ESPN from 4:30 p.m. ET, with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes from 5:30 p.m. ET; every match from every court streams in the ESPN App for ESPN Unlimited subscribers, and Disney+ subscribers can access select Day 1 action. These are United States entitlements only. Outside the US the tournament is shown by local rights holders, and no streaming access outside a viewer's own subscription is implied.
Current context: Venus Williams, 46, enters this first-round match with 13 consecutive singles defeats. The most recent came at the Cincinnati Open on 14 August 2026, a 6-2, 6-2 loss to qualifier Emiliana Arango, and she has not won a singles match since July 2025. She played singles and doubles in Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati in the month before this match. Her two US Open titles at Flushing Meadows came in 2000 and 2001. The wild card that placed her in this draw was initially held for Serena Williams, who chose doubles only, with the spot going to Kenin before the two were drawn against each other in round one. AP News · BBC Sport · AP News via Inquirer
Availability note: Both players are in the main draw as wild cards and neither has published a withdrawal. Tennis has no lineup or injury report equivalent. There is no official pre-match fitness bulletin for either player, so nothing about their physical condition should be assumed. The US Open's Schedule of Play page still reads 'Stay tuned for the 2026 Schedule of Play', so the court and exact start time for this first-round match were not published as of 28 August; the day session on Sunday, 30 August begins at 11 a.m. ET. Check the official draw and Schedule of Play for the final court assignment. US Open official Schedule of Play
Watch more Oddly Likely market stories on the platforms you already use.
LLost. Emiliana Arango · 2-6, 2-6 · Cincinnati Open R1
LLost. Kamilla Rakhimova · 4-6, 1-6 · National Bank Open R1
LLost. Anastasia Potapova · 3-6, 3-6 · Mubadala Citi DC Open R1
Home and away
Winless in singles in 2026; last singles win was July 2025 in Washington
Standing
Outside the top 600 in the WTA singles rankings; 46 years old, wild card entry
Sofia Kenin
Last 2
LLost. Marta Kostyuk · 6-4, 3-6, 5-7 · Cincinnati Open R2
WWon. Eva Lys · 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 · Cincinnati Open R1
Home and away
Has been beaten in two of her last three opening matches on the singles tour, all on hard court
Standing
No.115 in the WTA singles rankings; career high No.4; wild card entry
Head-to-head
Venus Williams and Sofia Kenin have never played each other. Sunday is their first meeting on tour. Kenin was 17 when Williams last reached a Grand Slam final.
Tennis publishes no lineup or injury report. Williams is confirmed in the main draw on a USTA wild card and no withdrawal has been announced; nothing further about her fitness is officially published. Court and start time were not yet listed on the official Schedule of Play as of 28 August.
Sofia Kenin
Lineup not yet published
Tennis publishes no lineup or injury report. Kenin is confirmed in the main draw on the final USTA wild card, awarded over the weekend of 22-23 August, and no withdrawal has been announced. Court and start time were not yet listed on the official Schedule of Play as of 28 August.
The short answer
Venus Williams, priced at 5.00, has lost 13 straight singles matches but faces a Sofia Kenin who has won just 20% of her singles matches in 2026, at the venue where Venus won back-to-back US Open titles.
The crowd has priced Venus Williams at 19% against a player who has won one match in five this season, back on the court where she lifted two Grand Slam trophies.
Venus Williams at 5.00 is worth backing. The price reflects her losing run, not Kenin's form. A player at 1.14 who wins one match in five this season is not a banker.
5.00×Venus Williams to win
The evidence
The evidence behind the read.
Venus Williams' singles losing streak
Venus Williams' singles losing streak
13straight singles defeats; her last win came in July 2025
Source: AP News, BBC Sport
Venus Williams' singles losing streak
Measure
Value
Venus Williams' singles losing streak
13
Sofia Kenin's 2026 win rate
Sofia Kenin's 2026 win rate
20.0%the heavy favourite has won one match in five this season
Sofia Kenin's 2026 win rate
Measure
Value
Sofia Kenin's 2026 win rate
20.0%
What the market thinks
What the market thinks
Sofia Kenin81
Venus Williams19
What the market thinks
Label
Value
Sofia Kenin
81
Venus Williams
19
Venus' last US Open second round
Venus' last US Open second round
2019she has not been past round one in New York since
Venus' last US Open second round
Measure
Value
Venus' last US Open second round
2019
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Sofia Kenin 1.14Venus Williams 5.00
Opening odds, Fri 28 Aug · 06:16 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Sofia Kenin
1.14
Venus Williams
5.00
Why the price may be wrong
The Price Is Built on 13 Losses, Not on Kenin's Form
The market assigns Sofia Kenin 81% and Venus Williams 19%. That split tracks Venus's losing streak, which stands at 13 consecutive singles defeats. Her last win came in July 2025, and she has not been past the first round at the US Open since 2019. The slide is documented and real. But the 81% assigned to Kenin demands scrutiny. Kenin has won four matches and lost sixteen in 2026, a 20% win rate across all tour-level matches. She is ranked No.115, down from a career high of No.4. The price of 1.14 implies she wins about 88% of such matches. No player posting a 20% win rate this season has earned that number on current form alone. (AP News, BBC Sport)
Two Titles on This Court
Venus Williams won the US Open in 2000 and 2001, beating Lindsay Davenport in the 2000 final and then her sister Serena in 2001. She first played in New York 29 years ago, reaching the final on her debut in 1997. None of that history transfers to the scoreboard. But this court is not unfamiliar territory in any abstract sense. It is literally where she played the best tennis of her career. The USTA wild card that placed her in this draw was initially held for Serena, who chose doubles only. When Serena passed, the spot went to Kenin, and the draw then produced this particular first-round match. (BBC Sport)
She Is Not Arriving Cold
The case against Venus in this spot usually assumes she is a fading name showing up on sentiment alone. The schedule does not support that framing. She played in Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati in the last month, entering singles and doubles draws at all three. The Cincinnati result was a 6-2, 6-2 loss to qualifier Emiliana Arango on 14 August. That confirms the level concern. It does not confirm inactivity. Kenin, for her part, did take a set off world No.11 Marta Kostyuk in Cincinnati, which is worth registering. But she has also been eliminated in two of her last three opening tour matches this year, all on hard court. (BBC Sport, AP News)
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Venus has won just one of her last nine opening-round sets at this event and is holding serve at 59% in 2026, well below the level needed to beat even a faded opponent.
The opposite case: Sofia Kenin
Venus has won just one of her last nine opening-round sets at this event, is holding serve at 59% in 2026, and has not advanced past the first round of any Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2021. Kenin is 25 years younger, converts over 44% of break points, and showed enough in Cincinnati to suggest she is not simply collecting losses.
Why the Venus Williams read survives
Kenin's own 2026 record is four wins from twenty matches. A price of 1.14 implies near-certainty, and that is not a number Kenin's form justifies. Venus has played Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati in the past month. She is not arriving cold. At 5.00, the value sits with the underdog whose opponent has been statistically almost as unreliable this season.
What the other side needs: For Kenin at 1.14 to be the right call, you need her Cincinnati performance against a top-15 player to signal returning form, her 65.7% service hold rate to dominate long exchanges, and Venus's 59% hold rate to be punished on return consistently enough to close the match in straight sets. That sequence is possible. It is not the same as probable at those odds.
Common questions
Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin: your questions answered
Who will win Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams?
Venus Williams at 5.00 is worth backing. The price reflects her losing run, not Kenin's form. A player at 1.14 who wins one match in five this season is not a banker.
Who is the favourite?
Sofia Kenin is the market favourite at a best price of 1.16×, about a 86% chance to win. Oddly Likely picks Venus Williams at 5.75×.
What time does Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams start?
Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams starts Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York. That is Sun 30 Aug · 15:00 UTC.
Where can I watch Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams?
ESPN is the exclusive US domestic rights holder and covers all 16 courts from Sunday, August 30. First-round Day 1 coverage runs on ABC from noon ET, ESPN2 from 3 p.m. ET and ESPN from 4:30 p.m. ET, with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes from 5:30 p.m. ET; every match from every court streams in the ESPN App for ESPN Unlimited subscribers, and Disney+ subscribers can access select Day 1 action. These are United States entitlements only. Outside the US the tournament is shown by local rights holders, and no streaming access outside a viewer's own subscription is implied.
What are the best odds for Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams?
The best prices across our ranked partners are: Sofia Kenin at 1.16× (BetOnline) and Venus Williams at 5.75× (CloudBet). Prices last checked Fri 28 Aug · 17:09 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
Are Venus Williams and Sofia Kenin both confirmed to play, and when exactly is the match on?
Both players are in the main draw as wild cards and neither has published a withdrawal. Tennis has no lineup or injury report equivalent. There is no official pre-match fitness bulletin for either player, so nothing about their physical condition should be assumed. The US Open's Schedule of Play page still reads 'Stay tuned for the 2026 Schedule of Play', so the court and exact start time for this first-round match were not published as of 28 August; the day session on Sunday, 30 August begins at 11 a.m. ET. Check the official draw and Schedule of Play for the final court assignment.