2025her last win, at this event over Peyton Stearns
5.91market price on Venus to win
Evidence confidence: The winless year and the Washington win a year ago are hard results; the read that Potapova arrives cold and out of place here is interpretation.
Scheduled Full timeWilliam H.G. FitzGerald Tennis Center, Washington, D.C.
In the United States the 2026 Mubadala DC Open is broadcast on Tennis Channel, with select early-round matches also on Tennis Channel 2. Both channels stream via Fubo, DirecTV and YouTube TV, and Tennis Channel 2 is available free on Pluto TV. These are U.S. viewing options; rights outside the U.S. are not stated here.
Current context: Venus Williams, 46 and ranked No. 469, enters on a main-draw wildcard and has yet to win a tour-level singles match in 2026. Her most recent main-draw singles win came at this event in 2025, when she beat Peyton Stearns on her return from a sixteen-month absence. The first-round winner meets fourth seed Diana Shnaider, who has a first-round bye, in the second round. Olympics.com · WTA
Availability note: Both players are listed in the singles main draw and no withdrawal has been reported as of research time; Venus enters on a main-draw wildcard, ranked No. 469 and without a tour-level singles win in 2026. No final fitness or injury report has been published. Check the official WTA tournament page (Order of Play / draw) for the latest status. WTA. Washington (DC Open) 2026 official tournament page
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Venus Williams has not won a tour-level singles match all season, but her last win came at this very tournament in 2025, so Washington is the one stage where her story can flip, and the price on it is nearly six times your money.
Venus has one tour-level singles win in two years, and it landed at this exact event twelve months ago.
Back Venus at 5.91. The market prices her as a 46-year-old wildcard who has not won a match all year, and that is true, but it forgets that her one win in this stretch happened on this court twelve months ago. The place that wrote her last chapter is the place she can write the next one.
5.91×Venus Williams to win
The evidence
The evidence behind the read.
Venus Williams' current singles ranking
Venus Williams' current singles ranking
No. 469Playing on a main-draw wildcard
Source: Olympics.com
Venus Williams' current singles ranking
Measure
Value
Venus Williams' current singles ranking
No. 469
Anastasia Potapova's current singles ranking
Anastasia Potapova's current singles ranking
No. 28The heavy ranking favourite
Anastasia Potapova's current singles ranking
Measure
Value
Anastasia Potapova's current singles ranking
No. 28
Potapova's 2026 clay-court swing
Potapova's 2026 clay-court swing
Wins17
Losses5
Potapova's 2026 clay-court swing
Label
Value
Wins
17
Losses
5
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Venus Williams 5.91Anastasia Potapova 1.14
Opening odds, Mon 27 Jul · 03:27 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Venus Williams
5.91
Anastasia Potapova
1.14
Why the price may be wrong
What the price forgets
The case against Venus is simple and it is real. She is 46, ranked No. 469, and playing on a main-draw wildcard. She has not won a tour-level singles match all season. That is the crowd's entire argument, and it is why she sits at 5.91 while Potapova is 1.14. But a price is a story, and this one skips a line. Venus's most recent main-draw singles win came at this exact event in 2025, when she beat Peyton Stearns on her return from sixteen months away. Her last victory is one year old and it happened in Washington. The market treats a winless year as the whole picture. The winless year is real, but so is where the streak last broke. (Olympics.com)
One win in two years, and it was here
Strip away the ranking and look at the record. In the last two years Venus has one tour-level singles win to her name, and it came at this tournament. This is a seven-time Grand Slam champion, five Wimbledons and two US Opens, a former World No. 1 who knows how to win the matches that matter. She is not that player week to week anymore. She is that player in flashes, and the flashes have a habit of arriving at events that mean something to her. Washington is one of them. A wildcard entry into the exact draw where she last tasted a win is the definition of a setup that suits her. (Olympics.com)
The favourite arrives cold
Potapova is the safe pick on paper. She is No. 28 in the world, more than 400 ranking places above Venus, and she caught fire during the clay swing with a 17-5 run. Then the surface changed and the results turned. She lost three in a row on grass and comes into Washington short of form. She has reportedly never won a main-draw match at this event, so the venue is unfamiliar ground for her at the same moment it is Venus's favourite ground. The higher ranking is earned. The current form and the history at this specific tournament point the other way.
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Potapova is the world No. 28 and the deserved favourite, which is the entire reason the market prices Venus so long.
The opposite case: Anastasia Potapova
Potapova is the world No. 28, more than 400 places above Venus, and at 1.14 the market says this is close to a formality for the favourite.
Why the Venus Williams read survives
Ranking measures a season, not a matchup. Potapova peaked on clay, then lost three straight when the surface switched, and she has reportedly never won a main-draw match in Washington. Venus is the one who has won here, one year ago, in this exact draw.
What the other side needs: If Potapova's grass slump was just a surface blip and she settles quickly on the hard court, her level simply overwhelms a 46-year-old who has not won a match in twelve months, and the ranking gap tells the whole story.
Common questions
Venus Williams vs Anastasia Potapova: your questions answered
Who won Venus Williams vs Anastasia Potapova?
Anastasia Potapova won 3-6 3-6. Anastasia Potapova beat Venus Williams 6-3 6-3 in the first round of the Mubadala Citi DC Open in Washington, her first win at the tournament.
Who did we back for Venus Williams vs Anastasia Potapova?
Back Venus at 5.91. The market prices her as a 46-year-old wildcard who has not won a match all year, and that is true, but it forgets that her one win in this stretch happened on this court twelve months ago. The place that wrote her last chapter is the place she can write the next one.
Who was the favourite?
Anastasia Potapova was the market favourite at a best price of 1.17×, about a 85% chance to win. Oddly Likely picked Venus Williams at 5.40×.
What were the best odds for Venus Williams vs Anastasia Potapova?
The closing prices we recorded were: Venus Williams at 5.40× (BC.Game) and Anastasia Potapova at 1.17× (1XBet). Prices last checked Mon 27 Jul · 12:40 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
When was Venus Williams vs Anastasia Potapova?
Venus Williams vs Anastasia Potapova took place on Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET at William H.G. FitzGerald Tennis Center, Washington, D.C.. That is Tue 28 Jul · 14:00 UTC.