# Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka Odds & Prediction 2026 > Berrettini beat Wawrinka on an 18-16 tie-break at Wimbledon. Every set went to a tie-break. Is Wawrinka at 4.2 the value at the US Open? Canonical: https://oddlylikely.com/markets/matteo-berrettini-v-stan-wawrinka-2026-08-31.html Status: upcoming Event: Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka Competition: US Open, men's singles first round Start: 2026-08-31T15:00:00Z (Mon 31 Aug ยท 15:00 UTC) Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York Market: match winner Updated: 2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z ## Editorial read Their only career meeting at Wimbledon went four sets and four tie-breaks. Wawrinka held six set points in the second before Berrettini escaped 18-16. A 4.2 price on that rematch is too long. ## Short answer Back Wawrinka. Every set of their Wimbledon meeting went to a tie-break, and the second ended 18-16 after Wawrinka held six set points for a two-sets lead. A player who pushed Berrettini that close is not a 22 per cent chance. The market is pricing his season. The Wimbledon match says something different. ## Key evidence - 18-16: Second-set tie-break score at Wimbledon - 4.2: Current price on Wawrinka - 46-16: Wawrinka's US Open career record - 22%: Market probability assigned to Wawrinka ## Recorded prices Prices are decimal snapshots, not live quotes. - #1 BetOnline: Matteo Berrettini 1.23; Stan Wawrinka 4.46 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:35.836Z) - #3 SportsBetting: Matteo Berrettini 1.23; Stan Wawrinka 4.46 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:35.836Z) - #4 22Bet: Matteo Berrettini 1.19; Stan Wawrinka 4.74 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z) - #6 BC.Game: Matteo Berrettini 1.21; Stan Wawrinka 4.00 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z) - #7 CloudBet: Matteo Berrettini 1.20; Stan Wawrinka 4.55 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:34.207Z) - #8 1XBet: Matteo Berrettini 1.19; Stan Wawrinka 4.74 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z) - #9 Stake: Matteo Berrettini 1.20; Stan Wawrinka 4.00 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z) - #10 MelBet: Matteo Berrettini 1.17; Stan Wawrinka 4.72 (checked 2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z) ## Analysis ### Every set went to a tie-break Their only career meeting was at Wimbledon nine weeks ago, on 30 June 2026. Berrettini beat Wawrinka 6-7(7), 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) in four hours and 20 minutes. Wawrinka won the first set in a tie-break. Berrettini won the next three, each in a tie-break. Not one set was settled in games. A match that goes the full four sets without a single service break deciding the outcome is not a match between a dominant player and a pushover. It is a match between two players who were, across 240 minutes, closely matched. ### What the 18-16 score actually shows The second set is the argument in one number. Wawrinka held six set points, any one of which would have put him two sets to love up in the match. Berrettini saved all six. The tie-break ran to 34 points and finished 18-16. That is not a dominant player grinding past a limited opponent. That is a player threading a needle six consecutive times just to level the match. Berrettini won it, but the margin of survival was a single point, repeated six times. ### New York has always been his court The 7-17 season record is real, and the explanation for the long price starts there. But Wawrinka's results in 2026 do not travel evenly to every venue. At Flushing Meadows specifically, he owns a 46-16 lifetime main-draw record. He won the title here in 2016, beating Novak Djokovic in the final for the third and last major of his career. He has eight top-ten wins at this tournament and two wins over a reigning world number one. The US Open is the one place his record has never sagged the way it has elsewhere. ### How the price got this long Wawrinka is 41, ranked 117, and 7-17 on tour this season. This is the last Grand Slam of his career and he almost did not make the draw: the USTA left him off the original wild-card list, he posted a farewell message to New York and flew home to Switzerland, and only got in on 26 August when a wild card withdrew injured. A player that old, with that record, arriving on a late call, is easy to price long. The market looked at his season and stopped there. It did not look at the Wimbledon scoreline. ## Strongest opposing case Berrettini is the better player right now. He hit 29 aces at Wimbledon, won 86 per cent of his first-serve points, and has not lost in the first round at the US Open since 2018. A 7-17 player ranked 117 who came in off a first-round Challenger loss to Safiullin in 71 minutes is a difficult bet in round one of a Slam, regardless of how close one match was nine weeks ago on a different surface. ## Response Those 29 aces and 86 per cent first-serve points were not enough to break Wawrinka more than once across the whole match. Berrettini won 52 per cent of the total points across four sets, not 78. He had to save six set points at 18-16 just to take the second, and he won the match only because every single tie-break went his way. That is not the profile of a 1.2 favourite. The market has priced the farewell tour and a rough season. The Wimbledon match, point by point, was a coin flip. ## Practical information - Watching: In the United States ESPN holds exclusive rights to the 2026 US Open. On Monday 31 August the official schedule lists first-round coverage on ESPN from 11:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET, US Open Match Point on ESPN 6-7 p.m. ET, and night-session coverage from 7 p.m. ET (Arthur Ashe on ESPN, Louis Armstrong on ESPN2), with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes and every court streaming in the ESPN App. This is the US domestic schedule only. Rights outside the United States are held by other broadcasters and are not listed here, and no court-by-court broadcast slot for this specific match is published in advance. - Availability: The US Open does not publish a per-player injury report, so there is no confirmed fitness status for either man. Both are in the published main draw and neither has withdrawn as of 30 August. Wawrinka accepted the last main-draw wild card on 26 August after American Patrick Kypson withdrew injured, and has been practising in New York since arriving. Berrettini disclosed a chronic hip diagnosis in July that cost him two tournaments, and has since played matches in Montreal and Cincinnati. Readers should check the official US Open site for late withdrawals or a walkover. ## Sources - [ATP Tour](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/berrettini-wawrinka-wimbledon-2026-tuesday) - [BBC Sport](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/cvgye2w5x20o) - [ATP Tour](https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-draw-preview) - [US Open. Official 2026 men's singles draw (usopen.org)](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/2026_MS_draw.pdf) - [US Open. Official domestic TV schedule (usopen.org)](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/about/tv_us.html) - [US Open (usopen.org)](https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-26/2016_champion_stan_wawrinka_will_return_for_final_us_open.html) - [Sports Mole](https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/us-open/preview/matteo-berrettini-vs-stanislas-wawrinka-prediction-form-head-to-head_603957.html) - [TennisDB](https://tennis-db.com/matches/4495858/matteo-berrettini-vs-stan-wawrinka) - [Global Tennis News](https://www.globaltennisnews.com/berrettini-chronic-hip-diagnosis-us-open/) - [Tennis365](https://www.tennis365.com/us-open/stan-wawrinka-dramatic-us-open-wildcard-u-turn-ahead-final-new-york-campaign) ## More from Oddly Likely - [All market analyses](https://oddlylikely.com/markets.html) - [Structured market record](https://oddlylikely.com/api/v1/markets/matteo-berrettini-v-stan-wawrinka-2026-08-31.json) - [Developer resources](https://oddlylikely.com/developers.html) - [Methodology](https://oddlylikely.com/methodology.html) - [Responsible gambling](https://oddlylikely.com/responsible-gambling.html) Educational analysis only. 18+. 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