Mon 31 Aug · 11:00 ET · USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York · odds compared across 9 partners.
Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka prediction
Our pickStan Wawrinka to win4.74×best price · 22Bet
Their only career meeting at Wimbledon went four sets and four tie-breaks. Wawrinka held six set points in the second before Berrettini escaped 18-16. A 4.2 price on that rematch is too long.
Main risk
Berrettini hit 29 aces at Wimbledon, won 86 per cent of his first-serve points, and is having a season that is not 7-17.
Evidence confidence: The four-set, four-tie-break Wimbledon result and the 18-16 score are hard results. The reading that 4.2 is mispriced is the analytical step, and Berrettini's serve dominance from that match cuts against it.
Starts UpcomingUSTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York
In the United States ESPN holds exclusive rights to the 2026 US Open. On Monday 31 August the official schedule lists first-round coverage on ESPN from 11:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET, US Open Match Point on ESPN 6-7 p.m. ET, and night-session coverage from 7 p.m. ET (Arthur Ashe on ESPN, Louis Armstrong on ESPN2), with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes and every court streaming in the ESPN App. This is the US domestic schedule only. Rights outside the United States are held by other broadcasters and are not listed here, and no court-by-court broadcast slot for this specific match is published in advance.
Current context: Berrettini beat Wawrinka 6-7(7), 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) in the Wimbledon first round on 30 June 2026, four hours and 20 minutes with every set decided by a tie-break. Wawrinka is playing the last Grand Slam of his career: ranked 117, he almost did not make the draw, posting a farewell to New York before getting in on 26 August when a wild card withdrew injured. The winner is projected to face Novak Djokovic in the second round, the man Wawrinka beat in the 2016 final here and who Berrettini lost to in the 2021 Wimbledon final. ATP Tour · BBC Sport · ATP Tour
Availability note: The US Open does not publish a per-player injury report, so there is no confirmed fitness status for either man. Both are in the published main draw and neither has withdrawn as of 30 August. Wawrinka accepted the last main-draw wild card on 26 August after American Patrick Kypson withdrew injured, and has been practising in New York since arriving. Berrettini disclosed a chronic hip diagnosis in July that cost him two tournaments, and has since played matches in Montreal and Cincinnati. Readers should check the official US Open site for late withdrawals or a walkover. US Open (usopen.org)
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7-17 on tour in 2026; 46-16 lifetime in the US Open main draw
Standing
No. 117 in the ATP rankings; main-draw wild card
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini 6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5) Stan Wawrinka30 Jun 2026 · Wimbledon, first round
Their only career meeting, played nine weeks ago. Berrettini won in four hours 20 minutes with every set decided by a tie-break; it was Wawrinka's last Wimbledon match. Berrettini leads the head-to-head 1-0.
Tennis publishes no lineup. Berrettini is in the official main draw and has not withdrawn. He announced a chronic hip diagnosis on 7 July 2026 and skipped Gstaad and Kitzbuehel to be ready for the US swing; he has since played one match in Montreal and two in Cincinnati. No official statement confirms the hip is resolved and none confirms it is still limiting him.
Stan Wawrinka
Lineup not yet published
Tennis publishes no lineup. Wawrinka is in the official main draw on a wild card accepted on 26 August and has reported no injury; he said in his pre-tournament press conference that he is 'feeling really good' and has been practising in New York. He is 41 and playing the final Grand Slam of his career.
The short answer
Wawrinka at 4.2 is far too large against the man who only just beat him on an 18-16 tie-break.
The same two men, nine weeks later, with a 34-point tie-break on record that makes a 78/22 market look like overconfidence.
Back Wawrinka. Every set of their Wimbledon meeting went to a tie-break, and the second ended 18-16 after Wawrinka held six set points for a two-sets lead. A player who pushed Berrettini that close is not a 22 per cent chance. The market is pricing his season. The Wimbledon match says something different.
18-16Wawrinka held six set points for a two-set lead at Wimbledon. Berrettini saved all six.
The tie-break that decided it
Measure
Value
The tie-break that decided it
18-16
Wawrinka's US Open main-draw record
Wawrinka's US Open main-draw record
46-16Lifetime main-draw wins and losses at Flushing Meadows, where he won the 2016 title.
Wawrinka's US Open main-draw record
Measure
Value
Wawrinka's US Open main-draw record
46-16
Wawrinka's 2026 season
Wawrinka's 2026 season
7-17Wins and losses on tour this season, his farewell year.
Wawrinka's 2026 season
Measure
Value
Wawrinka's 2026 season
7-17
Opening prices
Where the market opened
Matteo Berrettini 1.20Stan Wawrinka 4.20
Opening odds, Sun 30 Aug · 02:17 UTC. Not the live price.
Where the market opened
Outcome
Decimal price
Matteo Berrettini
1.20
Stan Wawrinka
4.20
Why the price may be wrong
Every set went to a tie-break
Their only career meeting was at Wimbledon nine weeks ago, on 30 June 2026. Berrettini beat Wawrinka 6-7(7), 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) in four hours and 20 minutes. Wawrinka won the first set in a tie-break. Berrettini won the next three, each in a tie-break. Not one set was settled in games. A match that goes the full four sets without a single service break deciding the outcome is not a match between a dominant player and a pushover. It is a match between two players who were, across 240 minutes, closely matched.
What the 18-16 score actually shows
The second set is the argument in one number. Wawrinka held six set points, any one of which would have put him two sets to love up in the match. Berrettini saved all six. The tie-break ran to 34 points and finished 18-16. That is not a dominant player grinding past a limited opponent. That is a player threading a needle six consecutive times just to level the match. Berrettini won it, but the margin of survival was a single point, repeated six times.
New York has always been his court
The 7-17 season record is real, and the explanation for the long price starts there. But Wawrinka's results in 2026 do not travel evenly to every venue. At Flushing Meadows specifically, he owns a 46-16 lifetime main-draw record. He won the title here in 2016, beating Novak Djokovic in the final for the third and last major of his career. He has eight top-ten wins at this tournament and two wins over a reigning world number one. The US Open is the one place his record has never sagged the way it has elsewhere.
How the price got this long
Wawrinka is 41, ranked 117, and 7-17 on tour this season. This is the last Grand Slam of his career and he almost did not make the draw: the USTA left him off the original wild-card list, he posted a farewell message to New York and flew home to Switzerland, and only got in on 26 August when a wild card withdrew injured. A player that old, with that record, arriving on a late call, is easy to price long. The market looked at his season and stopped there. It did not look at the Wimbledon scoreline. (BBC Sport)
Counterargument and protected turn
What if the read is wrong?
Berrettini hit 29 aces at Wimbledon, won 86 per cent of his first-serve points, and is having a season that is not 7-17.
The opposite case: Matteo Berrettini
Berrettini is the better player right now. He hit 29 aces at Wimbledon, won 86 per cent of his first-serve points, and has not lost in the first round at the US Open since 2018. A 7-17 player ranked 117 who came in off a first-round Challenger loss to Safiullin in 71 minutes is a difficult bet in round one of a Slam, regardless of how close one match was nine weeks ago on a different surface.
Why the Stan Wawrinka read survives
Those 29 aces and 86 per cent first-serve points were not enough to break Wawrinka more than once across the whole match. Berrettini won 52 per cent of the total points across four sets, not 78. He had to save six set points at 18-16 just to take the second, and he won the match only because every single tie-break went his way. That is not the profile of a 1.2 favourite. The market has priced the farewell tour and a rough season. The Wimbledon match, point by point, was a coin flip.
What the other side needs: For Berrettini to justify 1.2, Wawrinka's preparation needs to matter more than his venue record. A Cancun loss to Safiullin in 71 minutes, a season at 7-17, and this being his first Grand Slam hard-court singles match in over a year would all need to outweigh 46 career wins at this specific tournament and the closeness of that Wimbledon tie-break. If match sharpness decides it, Berrettini wins comfortably.
Common questions
Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka: your questions answered
Who will win Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka?
Back Wawrinka. Every set of their Wimbledon meeting went to a tie-break, and the second ended 18-16 after Wawrinka held six set points for a two-sets lead. A player who pushed Berrettini that close is not a 22 per cent chance. The market is pricing his season. The Wimbledon match says something different.
Who is the favourite?
Matteo Berrettini is the market favourite at a best price of 1.23×, about a 81% chance to win. Oddly Likely picks Stan Wawrinka at 4.74×.
What time does Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka start?
Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka starts Monday, August 31, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York. That is Mon 31 Aug · 15:00 UTC.
Where can I watch Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka?
In the United States ESPN holds exclusive rights to the 2026 US Open. On Monday 31 August the official schedule lists first-round coverage on ESPN from 11:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET, US Open Match Point on ESPN 6-7 p.m. ET, and night-session coverage from 7 p.m. ET (Arthur Ashe on ESPN, Louis Armstrong on ESPN2), with Spanish coverage on ESPN Deportes and every court streaming in the ESPN App. This is the US domestic schedule only. Rights outside the United States are held by other broadcasters and are not listed here, and no court-by-court broadcast slot for this specific match is published in advance.
What are the best odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka?
The best prices across our ranked partners are: Matteo Berrettini at 1.23× (BetOnline) and Stan Wawrinka at 4.74× (22Bet). Prices last checked Sun 30 Aug · 03:22 UTC. Odds move between checks, so confirm the current number with the partner before you bet.
Is either player carrying a fitness doubt into this first round, and has any late withdrawal been announced?
The US Open does not publish a per-player injury report, so there is no confirmed fitness status for either man. Both are in the published main draw and neither has withdrawn as of 30 August. Wawrinka accepted the last main-draw wild card on 26 August after American Patrick Kypson withdrew injured, and has been practising in New York since arriving. Berrettini disclosed a chronic hip diagnosis in July that cost him two tournaments, and has since played matches in Montreal and Cincinnati. Readers should check the official US Open site for late withdrawals or a walkover.