{
  "id": "venus-williams-v-sofia-kenin-2026-08-30",
  "url": "https://oddlylikely.com/markets/venus-williams-v-sofia-kenin-2026-08-30.html",
  "markdownUrl": "https://oddlylikely.com/markets/venus-williams-v-sofia-kenin-2026-08-30.md",
  "title": "Sofia Kenin vs Venus Williams Odds & Prediction 2026",
  "description": "Venus Williams is priced at 5.00 at the 2026 US Open, carrying 13 straight losses. Her opponent has won just one match in five this season. Is 19% fair?",
  "status": "upcoming",
  "modifiedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z",
  "event": {
    "name": "Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin",
    "sport": "tennis",
    "competition": "US Open",
    "startsAt": "2026-08-30T15:00:00Z",
    "venue": "USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York",
    "marketType": "match winner",
    "participants": [
      "Sofia Kenin",
      "Venus Williams"
    ]
  },
  "editorial": {
    "backedSide": "Venus Williams",
    "thesis": "At 5.00, Venus is priced purely on the losing streak. The argument is that Kenin's 20% win rate this season makes that price fragile.",
    "shortAnswer": "Venus Williams at 5.00 is worth backing. The price reflects her losing run, not Kenin's form. A player at 1.14 who wins one match in five this season is not a banker.",
    "counterargument": "Venus has won just one of her last nine opening-round sets at this event, is holding serve at 59% in 2026, and has not advanced past the first round of any Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2021. Kenin is 25 years younger, converts over 44% of break points, and showed enough in Cincinnati to suggest she is not simply collecting losses.",
    "response": "Kenin's own 2026 record is four wins from twenty matches. A price of 1.14 implies near-certainty, and that is not a number Kenin's form justifies. Venus has played Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati in the past month. She is not arriving cold. At 5.00, the value sits with the underdog whose opponent has been statistically almost as unreliable this season.",
    "proofPoints": [
      {
        "value": "13",
        "label": "Consecutive singles defeats for Venus entering this match"
      },
      {
        "value": "20%",
        "label": "Kenin's singles win rate across all matches in 2026"
      },
      {
        "value": "19%",
        "label": "Probability the market assigns Venus to win"
      },
      {
        "value": "2",
        "label": "US Open titles Venus won at Flushing Meadows"
      }
    ]
  },
  "offers": [
    {
      "partner": "BetOnline",
      "rank": 1,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.16,
        "Venus Williams": 5.58
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:13.844Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "ThunderPick",
      "rank": 2,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.14,
        "Venus Williams": 5.63
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T16:02:18.095Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "SportsBetting",
      "rank": 3,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.16,
        "Venus Williams": 5.58
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:13.844Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "22Bet",
      "rank": 4,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.15,
        "Venus Williams": 5.45
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "BC.Game",
      "rank": 6,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.12,
        "Venus Williams": 5.4
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "CloudBet",
      "rank": 7,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.13,
        "Venus Williams": 5.75
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:10.875Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "1XBet",
      "rank": 8,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.15,
        "Venus Williams": 5.45
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "Stake",
      "rank": 9,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.13,
        "Venus Williams": 5
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "MelBet",
      "rank": 10,
      "prices": {
        "Sofia Kenin": 1.13,
        "Venus Williams": 5.43
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-28T17:09:14.745Z"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/venus-williams-cincinnati-tennis-32a5871e7a1fe021b2658253ab4296f9"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC Sport",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/articles/ckgew7881lno"
    },
    {
      "name": "AP News via Inquirer",
      "url": "https://sports.inquirer.net/691936/venus-williams-plays-sofia-kenin-in-us-open-first-round"
    },
    {
      "name": "US Open official Women's Singles draw",
      "url": "https://www.usopen.org/en_US/draws/index.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "ESPN Press Room (official rights-holder release)",
      "url": "https://espnpressroom.com/press-release/espn-presents-all-of-the-2026-us-open-all-in-one-place/"
    },
    {
      "name": "US Open official Schedule of Play",
      "url": "https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/schedule/index.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tennis Tonic head-to-head profile",
      "url": "https://tennistonic.com/head-to-head-compare/Venus-Williams-Vs-Sofia-Kenin/"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sports Mole match preview",
      "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/us-open/preview/venus-williams-vs-sofia-kenin-prediction-form_603881.html"
    }
  ]
}