{
  "id": "matteo-berrettini-v-stan-wawrinka-2026-08-31",
  "url": "https://oddlylikely.com/markets/matteo-berrettini-v-stan-wawrinka-2026-08-31.html",
  "markdownUrl": "https://oddlylikely.com/markets/matteo-berrettini-v-stan-wawrinka-2026-08-31.md",
  "title": "Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka Odds & Prediction 2026",
  "description": "Berrettini beat Wawrinka on an 18-16 tie-break at Wimbledon. Every set went to a tie-break. Is Wawrinka at 4.2 the value at the US Open?",
  "status": "upcoming",
  "modifiedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z",
  "event": {
    "name": "Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka",
    "sport": "tennis",
    "competition": "US Open, men's singles first round",
    "startsAt": "2026-08-31T15:00:00Z",
    "venue": "USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, New York",
    "marketType": "match winner",
    "participants": [
      "Matteo Berrettini",
      "Stan Wawrinka"
    ]
  },
  "editorial": {
    "backedSide": "Stan Wawrinka",
    "thesis": "Their only career meeting at Wimbledon went four sets and four tie-breaks. Wawrinka held six set points in the second before Berrettini escaped 18-16. A 4.2 price on that rematch is too long.",
    "shortAnswer": "Back Wawrinka. Every set of their Wimbledon meeting went to a tie-break, and the second ended 18-16 after Wawrinka held six set points for a two-sets lead. A player who pushed Berrettini that close is not a 22 per cent chance. The market is pricing his season. The Wimbledon match says something different.",
    "counterargument": "Berrettini is the better player right now. He hit 29 aces at Wimbledon, won 86 per cent of his first-serve points, and has not lost in the first round at the US Open since 2018. A 7-17 player ranked 117 who came in off a first-round Challenger loss to Safiullin in 71 minutes is a difficult bet in round one of a Slam, regardless of how close one match was nine weeks ago on a different surface.",
    "response": "Those 29 aces and 86 per cent first-serve points were not enough to break Wawrinka more than once across the whole match. Berrettini won 52 per cent of the total points across four sets, not 78. He had to save six set points at 18-16 just to take the second, and he won the match only because every single tie-break went his way. That is not the profile of a 1.2 favourite. The market has priced the farewell tour and a rough season. The Wimbledon match, point by point, was a coin flip.",
    "proofPoints": [
      {
        "value": "18-16",
        "label": "Second-set tie-break score at Wimbledon"
      },
      {
        "value": "4.2",
        "label": "Current price on Wawrinka"
      },
      {
        "value": "46-16",
        "label": "Wawrinka's US Open career record"
      },
      {
        "value": "22%",
        "label": "Market probability assigned to Wawrinka"
      }
    ]
  },
  "offers": [
    {
      "partner": "BetOnline",
      "rank": 1,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.23,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4.46
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:35.836Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "SportsBetting",
      "rank": 3,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.23,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4.46
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:35.836Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "22Bet",
      "rank": 4,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.19,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4.74
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "BC.Game",
      "rank": 6,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.21,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "CloudBet",
      "rank": 7,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.2,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4.55
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:34.207Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "1XBet",
      "rank": 8,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.19,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4.74
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "Stake",
      "rank": 9,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.2,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z"
    },
    {
      "partner": "MelBet",
      "rank": 10,
      "prices": {
        "Matteo Berrettini": 1.17,
        "Stan Wawrinka": 4.72
      },
      "checkedAt": "2026-08-30T03:22:36.391Z"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "ATP Tour",
      "url": "https://www.atptour.com/en/news/berrettini-wawrinka-wimbledon-2026-tuesday"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC Sport",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/cvgye2w5x20o"
    },
    {
      "name": "ATP Tour",
      "url": "https://www.atptour.com/en/news/us-open-2026-draw-preview"
    },
    {
      "name": "US Open. Official 2026 men's singles draw (usopen.org)",
      "url": "https://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/2026_MS_draw.pdf"
    },
    {
      "name": "US Open. Official domestic TV schedule (usopen.org)",
      "url": "https://www.usopen.org/en_US/about/tv_us.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "US Open (usopen.org)",
      "url": "https://www.usopen.org/en_US/news/articles/2026-08-26/2016_champion_stan_wawrinka_will_return_for_final_us_open.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sports Mole",
      "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/tennis/us-open/preview/matteo-berrettini-vs-stanislas-wawrinka-prediction-form-head-to-head_603957.html"
    },
    {
      "name": "TennisDB",
      "url": "https://tennis-db.com/matches/4495858/matteo-berrettini-vs-stan-wawrinka"
    },
    {
      "name": "Global Tennis News",
      "url": "https://www.globaltennisnews.com/berrettini-chronic-hip-diagnosis-us-open/"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tennis365",
      "url": "https://www.tennis365.com/us-open/stan-wawrinka-dramatic-us-open-wildcard-u-turn-ahead-final-new-york-campaign"
    }
  ]
}